Skip to content
Leadership

True Confidence Comes From Competence

September 5, 20218 min read1,685 words

I stood in front of a new server rack with my stomach in knots. I knew the theory cold. My hands still felt clumsy. I was waiting to feel confident before I touched anything, which is exactly backward, and it cost me about a decade to figure out why.

An engineer alone in a dim data center aisle, cables in hand, face lit by green and amber status lights on a tall server rack.

The takeaways

  1. 01

    Practice and feedback can improve competence; evidence can support confidence and help you choose the next challenge.

    What to do nextPick the thing you have been preparing for and attempt a small version of it this week.

  2. 02

    Treat task-specific confidence as a forecast you can check against results, not proof that you cannot be wrong.

    What to do nextCount how many reps you actually have at the thing you feel shaky about before judging yourself.

  3. 03

    Low confidence can reflect a skill gap, discounted evidence or a concern about belonging. Check which problem you are addressing.

    What to do nextCompare one self-doubt with your actual results and ask for specific feedback before choosing more practice.

  4. 04

    The loop can run backward. Avoidance feels like prudence and produces no reps, which produces less confidence, which produces more avoidance.

    What to do nextIdentify one situation you have been routing around and stop routing around it.

  5. 05

    Written records of attempts, outcomes and feedback help you compare how progress feels with what actually happened.

    What to do nextStart a one line log today of what you attempted and what happened.

Competence is the ability to do a specific task; confidence is your belief that you can do it. In the loop I use, practice and feedback improve competence, evidence supports confidence, and confidence helps me attempt the next challenge. Confidence can be misplaced, so I check it against results rather than treating certainty as proof.

I remember standing in front of a new server rack, blinking lights staring back at me, stomach in knots.

I knew the theory. I had read the manuals, passed the exams, could draw the architecture on a whiteboard. My hands still felt clumsy. And it was not really about the cables. It was the client's data, the deadline, my reputation, and the very specific fear of being the guy who broke something in front of people who would remember.

So I did what I always did. I studied more. One more chapter, one more lab, one more certification, waiting for the moment I would feel ready enough to move without the knot.

That moment never came. Not once, in any domain, ever.

Confidence vs. Competence: Why Waiting to Feel Ready Stalls Practice

I believed confidence was the prerequisite.

Get confident, then act. Feel sure, then commit. Under that model, my job when I felt shaky was to work on the feeling: more preparation, more study, more certainty acquired in private before showing up in public. It is a very appealing theory for someone who is good at studying, and I was extremely good at studying. Air Force Academy, engineering degrees, a wall of three-letter certifications.

What that model actually produced was a person who could talk about almost anything and hesitated on the ones that mattered. It also produced a specific kind of fake confidence, the kind I later wrote a whole book about, where certainty gets performed to cover the gap. I could sound authoritative in a meeting all day long. Sounding authoritative is not the same as being accurate. I needed feedback about what the audience understood, not a stronger performance of certainty.

How Avoidance Weakens Task-Specific Confidence

In that conversation, the wall was not technical. My skill gap was translating what I knew into language the executive could use.

I could run the assessment. What I could not do was sit in front of a client executive and tell them something they did not want to hear, in language they understood, without retreating into jargon. Technically I was as competent as anyone in the building. In that specific human skill, I had almost no reps, so I had almost no confidence, so I avoided the situation, which produced no reps.

That is a closed loop running in reverse, and it is the most expensive thing I have ever owned. Avoidance feels like prudence from the inside. It is just the loop spinning backward, taking a little bit of you with each turn.

The part that stung, once I saw it, was that I had already proven the correct model to myself a dozen times and never noticed. I did not become a swimmer by feeling confident about open water. I became a swimmer by being bad at it in a pool, repeatedly, until the evidence stacked up. Twenty four Ironman finishes did not start with belief. They started with a terrible first attempt.

How the Confidence-Competence Loop Works

Confidence is not the fuel. It is the exhaust.

Competence produces evidence. Evidence produces confidence. Confidence produces the willingness to attempt something slightly harder, which produces more competence. Around and around. That is the loop, and the direction matters enormously, because if you believe confidence comes first you will spend your life waiting at a bus stop no bus serves.

Here is the sharper version I use. I treat earned confidence as a forecast based on a track record, rather than relying only on a feeling. When I say I am confident I can lead a hard client conversation, I am not describing my mood. I am looking at previous attempts, what went well and what I still need to improve. That forecast is checkable. It can still be wrong, but I can revise it with evidence instead of defending a confident performance.

And the reverse deserves a closer look. Low confidence is not a character flaw, but it is not always an accurate measure of ability either. Sometimes I need more practice. Sometimes I have evidence and am discounting it. I check the task, the results and the context before deciding what to change.

Can You Be Competent but Still Lack Confidence?

Yes. Being able to do a task and believing you can do it are different. I can have useful evidence and still feel uneasy in a new room. I separate three questions: What can I reliably do? What is genuinely new here? Am I worried about the task, or about whether I belong?

If the skill is missing, I practice it. If the evidence is there, I review it with someone who can give specific feedback. If the recurring question is about belonging, my primary-question story explores that different problem. More certifications are not proof of personal worth.

Why This Cuts Against How Smart People Operate

Technical people get punished for the loop early.

We are rewarded for knowing, and the cost of visibly not knowing feels enormous. So we build an entire operating system around never being caught unprepared, which means we only step into arenas where we are already good. That keeps the score clean and the range narrow.

Meanwhile, the loop asks me to practice the part I am avoiding. That can happen in a rehearsal or a supervised setting; it does not require a public failure. Competence is not conferred by understanding, and understanding is where smart people love to live. I could explain the mechanics of a difficult conversation years before I could have one.

The useful part is that intelligence is not a substitute for this particular skill. The quality of practice and feedback matters, not just the count of attempts.

How to Build Competence With Five Practice Steps

Shrink the rep until it is embarrassing. Not "give a keynote." Ask one question in a meeting with twelve people in it. The rep needs to be small enough that you will actually do it today, because a rep you postpone produces zero evidence and a large amount of dread.

Practice before you feel completely confident, within appropriate limits. A rehearsal or a supervised attempt can produce useful feedback without exposing someone else to an avoidable risk. Medical, security and other high-stakes work still requires the right training and safeguards.

Keep receipts. This is the step everyone skips and it is the one that makes the loop compound. Write down what you attempted and what happened. When I focus only on mistakes, a written record helps me compare that impression with actual outcomes. I record useful feedback as well as completed attempts.

Increase the difficulty when your results support it. There is no universal percentage. The loop breaks when the jump is so big the result is uninterpretable. One question in a meeting becomes one disagreement in a meeting becomes one hard conversation with a client.

Watch for the flip. Over time, you may need less rehearsal for a familiar task. There is no fixed number of attempts that produces confidence. That is the loop closing. Note the date. You will need to remember it the next time you start something new and feel like a beginner again, because you will.

Earned Confidence vs. Performed Certainty

Waiting for confidenceRunning the loop
Study until it feels safeChoose a prepared, appropriately scoped attempt
Avoid what you are bad atRehearse the missing skill with safeguards
Judge yourself on how you feel going inReview results, feedback and the next adjustment
Confidence as a personality traitConfidence as a forecast from a track record
Fake certainty to cover the gapSay "I do not know yet, here is how I will find out"

Choose the Next Rep

Before you choose the next attempt, weigh the gains and losses of acting and staying put. Decision clarity is not a replacement for the rep. Decision clarity helps you choose a rep worth taking, then use the result as evidence.

What Changed

I still get the knot. In front of a new audience, a new mountain, a new kind of problem, the knot shows up on schedule and I no longer treat it as information about my ability.

What changed is that I stopped negotiating with the feeling and started counting reps. My whole life now runs on that order of operations. I did not get confident and then build a cybersecurity firm. I built one badly, then less badly, and the confidence arrived afterward like a receipt in the mail.

If you are waiting to feel ready, you are waiting for a thing that is manufactured on the other side of the door.

What is the smallest rep you could do today that you have been postponing until you feel ready?

Continue the Confidence Series

My building confidence guide and reading path brings together competence, gain/loss decisions, trigger awareness, and communication. Use it to choose where to start or return to the next part of the loop.

Confidence Is Task-Specific, Not a Measure of Your Worth

I can be skilled at a technical assessment and inexperienced at an executive briefing. That does not make me less worthy of belonging. It identifies a different skill to practice. Persistent self-doubt can have causes beyond a practice gap; evidence, context and support matter too.

“I treat earned confidence as a forecast based on a track record, not a demand to feel certain.”

Sit with this

  • What are you studying instead of attempting, and how long have you been studying it?
  • Which skill do you have zero reps at, and what would a ten minute version of the first rep look like?
  • Where are you performing certainty to cover a gap that reps would actually close?

Frequently asked

Share this essay

Christian Espinosa, headshot

About the author

Christian Espinosa · Founder & CEO, Blue Goat Cyber

Christian is the founder and CEO of Blue Goat Cyber, a medical device cybersecurity firm. He is an Air Force Academy graduate, 24x Ironman, climber of two of the Seven Summits, and the author of The Smartest Person in the Room and The In-Between: Life in the Micro.

Keep reading